{"id":1271,"date":"2026-05-21T15:35:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T15:35:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tampamovingjournal.com\/?p=1271"},"modified":"2026-05-21T15:35:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T15:35:10","slug":"noaa-reveals-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-activity-forecast-as-super-el-nino-looms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tampamovingjournal.com\/?p=1271","title":{"rendered":"NOAA reveals 2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast as Super El Ni\u00f1o looms"},"content":{"rendered":"

MIAMI, Fla.<\/strong> – <\/span>NOAA<\/u> released its official 2026 Atlantic<\/u> hurricane<\/u> season forecast Thursday, predicting a below-average season with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, including 1-3 major (Category 3+) hurricanes this year.<\/p>

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HOW ARE HURRICANES RATED?<\/u><\/strong><\/p>

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n

This satellite image shows Hurricane Melissa south of Jamaica on Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025. (NOAA)<\/span> <\/p> <\/div><\/div>

In comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.<\/p>

NOAA emphasized the suppressive impact it expects the developing El Ni\u00f1o<\/u> climate pattern will have on tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region (MDR) this year. This region spans the waters between West Africa<\/u> and the Caribbean and is the birthplace of many hurricanes that strike North and Central America.<\/p>

<\/div>

2026 HURRICANE SEASON: COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECASTS EL NI\u00d1O TO DOMINATE AND SUPPRESS ATLANTIC ACTIVITY<\/u><\/strong><\/p>

NOAA’s forecast parallels Colorado State University’s (CSU) April outlook, which called for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, including 2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes this year. This is the fewest number of storms that CSU has predicted since 2019 \u2014 the university was the pioneer of early-year hurricane season forecasts beginning in 1984.<\/p>

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER<\/u><\/strong><\/p>

CSU anticipated that a Super El Ni\u00f1o<\/u> will become the dominant factor in determining tropical weather patterns this season.<\/p>

This comes as data out of the Pacific Ocean points to a historically strong Super El Ni\u00f1o<\/u> that is forecast to take hold sometime this summer<\/u> and is expected to virtually shut down hurricane<\/u> formation in the open waters of the Atlantic.<\/p>

WHAT IS A SUPER EL NINO?<\/u><\/strong><\/p>

El Ni\u00f1o is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)<\/u>. It describes natural temperature<\/u> changes in the central Pacific Ocean<\/u> that alter atmospheric<\/u> circulation and can greatly influence global<\/u> weather.<\/p>

El Ni\u00f1o describes warmer than average water across the equatorial Pacific, while La Ni\u00f1a<\/u> describes colder than average water conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a state where temperatures<\/u> are close to average.<\/p>

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NEW DATA REVEALS 100% CHANCE OF STRONG \u2018SUPER\u2019 EL NINO FORMING THIS YEAR<\/u><\/strong><\/p>

During El Ni\u00f1o, above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean<\/u> produce strong winds<\/u> that hinder tropical development in the Atlantic and enhance development in the Eastern Pacific.<\/p>

While such a strong El Ni\u00f1o is expected to virtually shut down hurricane formation in the open waters of the Atlantic this year, it could actually generate so-called “homegrown” tropical systems in the northern Gulf and along the Southeast<\/u> coast \u2014 where storms tend to form during the first-half of the season.<\/p>

BREWING \u2018SUPER\u2019 EL NI\u00d1O MAY SELF-DESTRUCT AFTER REACHING RECORD PEAK, TRIGGERING RAPID LA NI\u00d1A RETURN IN 2027<\/u><\/strong><\/p>

Although these systems tend to be weaker and shorter-lived compared to storms that develop farther out in the Atlantic, they also generally have shorter lead times before impacts occur, the FOX Forecast Center said.<\/p>

Climatologically, the first named storm in the Atlantic typically does not form until around June 20, while the first hurricane usually develops closer to August 11.<\/p>

Furthermore, forecasters qualify that exactly when El Ni\u00f1o forms will play an almost equal role in how much of the hurricane season is suppressed.\u00a0<\/p>

NOAA, the FOX Forecast Center and FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross<\/u> all cautioned that it only takes one storm to cause major impacts.<\/p>

BRYAN NORCROSS: THINKING ABOUT EL NI\u00d1O, HURRICANE SEASON 2026, AND AI<\/u><\/strong><\/p>

NOAA generally releases an updated hurricane forecast in August, ahead of the peak of the season in the Atlantic.<\/p>

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The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30.<\/p>

Read more at FOXWeather.com.\u00a0<\/p> <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Thursday, predicting a below-average season with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, including 1-3 major (Category 3+) hurricanes this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1269,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,268],"tags":[26,269],"class_list":["post-1271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-florida","category-hurricanes","tag-florida","tag-hurricanes"],"yoast_head":"\nNOAA reveals 2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast as Super El Ni\u00f1o looms - Tampa moving journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tampamovingjournal.com\/?p=1271\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NOAA reveals 2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast as Super El Ni\u00f1o looms - 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