Florida early voting analysis: Republicans take narrow lead as 3.5 million cast ballots

More than 3.5 million Floridians have already cast ballots with six days to go until Election Day, giving political campaigns an increasingly clear picture of who has voted and who they still need to reach.

admin October 28, 2026 3 minutes read

TAMPA, Fla. – More than 3.5 million Floridians have already cast ballots with six days to go until Election Day, giving political campaigns an increasingly clear picture of who has voted and who they still need to reach.

Florida early voting totals

What we know:

The University of Florida Election Lab reports 3,517,675 ballots were cast through Tuesday. That includes 1,934,427 in-person early votes and 1,583,248 returned mail ballots.

With millions of voters already finished, campaigns can increasingly focus their final get-out-the-vote efforts on supporters who have not yet cast a ballot. That urgency is showing up on the campaign trail.

What they’re saying:

Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds told supporters at a Tallahassee rally Tuesday that his closing mission was simple. “Our mission over the next seven days is really simple. Just get out and vote,” Donalds said.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly also campaigned in Tallahassee Tuesday, focusing his closing message on affordability, health care and education.

“The greatest concern right now is your personal economy. Can you afford your house? Where does your family get healthcare? And in a state that abandoned public education, where do you send your kids to school?” Jolly said. Jolly has made housing, health care and education central to his closing argument, while Donalds has emphasized turning out voters and continuing Republican leadership in Florida. Increased utility costs and the construction of AI data centers have also become a key issue during this election cycle. Both candidates are now making their final push before Nov. 3.

By the numbers:

Nearly 850,000 ballots have already been cast across the nine counties in the FOX 13 viewing area. Hillsborough leads the region with 221,900 ballots cast. Registered Democrats who have voted outnumber Republicans there by 15,893. Pinellas has recorded 182,704 ballots, with Democrats holding a much narrower 2,754-voter registration advantage.

Republicans lead among voters who have participated in Citrus, Hardee, Hernando, Manatee, Pasco and Sarasota counties. Polk is almost evenly divided. Of 94,469 voters who have cast ballots there, 38,318 are registered Republicans and 38,186 are Democrats, a difference of just 132. Across all nine counties, 848,122 ballots have been cast. Registered Republicans account for 349,666, Democrats for 320,432 and another 178,024 voters are registered with a minor party or no major party.

How does 2026 compare with the last midterm?

More than 5 million Floridians ultimately voted before Election Day in the 2022 midterm, including about 2.77 million by mail and 2.29 million through in-person early voting. Florida is already above 3.5 million in 2026 with six days remaining until Election Day. The comparison provides a benchmark for how much of the electorate has already voted, but the 2026 total is still growing and cannot yet be directly compared with the completed 2022 total.

What we don’t know:

Knowing a voter’s party registration does not reveal how that person voted. A registered Republican can vote for a Democrat, a registered Democrat can vote for a Republican, and voters without a major-party affiliation can vote for any candidate in the general election. The numbers will continue changing as more Floridians vote early and additional mail ballots are returned. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.